Welcome to the Lead Centre on Verification of Ensemble Prediction System Web site
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) CBS-XIII (2005) recommended that the general responsibilities for a Lead
Centre for Verification of EPS be added to the Manual on the GDPFS (WMO-No.485) and that the President designate RSMC Tokyo (Japan Meteorological Agency: JMA) as this Lead Centre.
Standard verification measures of the global EPS in Manual on the GDPFS
The standard verification measures of the global EPS are defined in Manual on the GDPFS (2017 edition, WMO-No. 485; available here), appendix 2.2.35. Because of the publication of the latest edition of the Manual, WMO GDPFS Centres are highly recommended grasping the changes in those measures form the previous edition of the Manual (2010 edition - updated in 2015; available here).
Stations list for verification of precipitation against observations
Verification of precipitation is recommended to be performed against observations, which are based on the GCOS list of surface networks (GSN). The latest GSN stations list is available from the OSCAR/Surface website. You can get the list in JSON format by accessing the following URL:
EPS producing centres shall have the right to omit certain observation sites if these fail a quality control.
Verification of precipitation may alternatively be against a proxy analysis. For more details, please refer to the Manual on the GDPFS.
Climatology for verification
The climatology data used in the verification measures are available from the ftp server of the WMO Lead Centre for Deterministic Forecast Verification. Information on how to obtain access to the data is available here.
Lead Centre guideline on the exchange and use of EPS verification results
In addition to the Manual, the Lead Centre has prepared the guideline on the exchange and use of EPS verification results (available here) for following information:
The information of uploading the "Monthly Exchange" is here.
The visualized images in the menu "Monthly Diagrams" and "Timesequence" are made by the Lead Centre.
Verification results of some centres are still unavailable.
The information of reported parameters in "Monthly Exchange" is here.
For further information, please contact JMA at the email address below.
a) Monthly verification reports on this website remain the property of the contributing centre.
|The Manual on the GDPFS|
|Lead Centre for Deterministic Forecast Verification|
|WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research|
|Global model error maps|
|Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia (RUMS)|
|Met Office Numerical Weather Prediction models|